Cathie Wood on the 'convergence' of Musk's empire: the SpaceX IPO will be volatile, but space data centers could multiply the valuation 10-20x
โถ Watch original๐ Key Takeaways
- The SpaceX IPO is about $75 billion in size with extremely strong demand; Cathie Wood expects an initial supply-demand imbalance to cause a 'spike' at listing, followed by sharp volatility, on a path similar to Tesla's back in the day.
- Musk's core strategy is 'vertical integration + controlling the supply chain,' letting his companies converge with each other (SpaceX making chips, moving data centers into space orbit).
- Space orbital data centers are the biggest upside: ARK's preliminary estimate is that adding this business could make the relevant revenue an order of magnitude '10 to 20x' higher than the current model.
- Tesla's Robotaxi achieves the lowest cost through vertical integration: cost per mile could fall from $3 to $0.25; by 2030 Waymo's cost will still be 50% higher than Tesla's.
- AI doesn't just consume GPUs โ 'agentic AI' and inference will heavily activate CPUs. Lisa Su says the current CPU:GPU ratio is about 1:4-5 and may return to 1:1 in the future, benefiting 'old chips' like AMD, Intel, and memory.
- She's bullish on the rise in return on capital from US deregulation + tax cuts; stablecoins (Circle) and crypto usher in a new financial order under the GENIUS Act, and America 'has a chance' to win back dominance.
๐ Full Breakdown
Cathie Wood believes Musk is 'converging' his companies into a vertically integrated whole: six months ago Musk himself said the synergies between the companies run even deeper than he'd originally understood. SpaceX and Tesla jointly building a chip factory (a $55 billion investment, up to nearly $120 billion) and moving data centers into space are all about controlling the supply chain themselves โ many of these new fields have no existing supply chain at all, so it has to be built while blazing the trail. Musk habitually sets timelines earlier than anyone expects, in order to get employees and the supply chain aligned in advance, because 'once he acts, he moves very fast.'
On the SpaceX IPO: the size is known to be about $75 billion, and market demand is 'greedy.' SpaceX is the largest holding in ARK's venture fund, which now exceeds $850 million in size, and many investors came knocking specifically for 'space.' She expects a spike from a supply-demand imbalance early in the listing, followed by sharp volatility, but SpaceX has reignited society's imagination for space exploration. The real upside comes from the 'orbital data centers' not yet built into the model โ a preliminary estimate suggests they could multiply revenue by 10-20x. She also rebuts the worry that 'ground-based data centers are a bubble': this isn't 1999, the seeds were planted then and are only blooming now, and this technological revolution will 'far eclipse the Industrial Revolution'; both ground-based and space-based data centers are needed, and space can also sidestep the 'NIMBY effect' (Memphis residents protesting electricity-price increases and land use).
On Tesla, she reiterates it's an 'autonomous driving + robotics' company rather than a carmaker: in Robotaxi, Tesla is vertically integrated and has built out the platform with the lowest cost structure, with cost per mile likely to fall from over $3 to $0.25 and transportation costs set to 'collapse'; whereas Waymo depends on external automakers and supply chains, and its cost in 2030 will still be 50% higher.
On chips she stresses 'you need it all': AI needs more than GPUs โ agents and inference will heavily activate CPUs, an overlooked 'sleeper,' benefiting AMD, Intel (which has re-emerged), Flex, and data storage that's surging on shortages โ 'you need these old-style chips to get to the new world.'
On regulation, she thinks the White House having Google, Microsoft, and others submit AI models to the government for evaluation in advance is more of a national-security consideration than heavy regulation; and she sees 'the model is too powerful to dare release it' as an effective marketing line. Competition (including from China) is good for the industry.
Finally on crypto: the crypto community was a 'swing factor' in the last election because they expected deregulation. Now the deregulatory, tax-cutting, pro-business environment is shaping a 'new financial world order,' and America's overall return on invested capital will rise; she has invested in Circle, is bullish on stablecoins growing under the GENIUS Act, and believes America once risked losing the crypto revolution, but now 'has a chance' to win it back.